Harry S. Dent, Junior. is unquestionably an excellent financial consultant and author. He’s written numerous books predicting economic trends since 1992. He makes use of a combination of economic cycles and demographic studies to calculate the financial future.
Dent acquired a Master of business administration course from Harvard and possesses labored as being a consultant. Today, in addition to writing books on his methodology he publishes the HS Dent Forecast e-e-e-newsletter along with the HS Dent Perspective. Also, he’s mind within the HS Dent Financial Consultant Network.
Dent is way better famous for his four books:
The Great Boom Ahead (printed 1992)
The Roaring 2000s (printed 1999)
The Following Great Bubble Boom: Making profit the best Boom ever, 2005 – 2009 (printed 2004), and
The Great Crash Ahead (printed 2011)
How much does Harry S. Dent, Junior. Predict
Within The Great Boom Ahead Dent forecast a effective economic period within the 1990s for the U.S. when most economists and pundits were predicting a smaller period. Within The Roaring 2000s Dent predicted the price-effective boom in early 2000s which came true. His central thesis may be the large Baby Boom Generation (individuals born between 1946 and 1964) may be fuel a considerable length of consumption in individuals occasions which, when as well as other economic cycles, brings of the strong and growing economy.
Next Great Bubble Boom he repeated most of the fabric inside the second book and advised investors to learn in the fiscal boom he predicted would continue with the bursting within the tech bubble noisy . 2000s. Again, he proven largely accurate within the outcome.
In the last books he predicted the boom within the 2000s would burst because the largest demographic group in the united states, the child Boomers, grew to become part of the best length of high spending.
Inside the newest book, The Great Crash Ahead, (2011) Dent predicts not just that the economy possess a considerable downturn within the latter area of the first decade within the 2000s however, this downturn may be sustained not under ten years adopted getting a sluggish recovery. This conjecture relies partly on a single cycles and census that his earlier books relied upon, but plays a part in it the shrinking workforce within the U.S. along with unparalleled corporate, government and debt.
Dent argues that buyers, investors, business along with the government elevated to obtain drunk with what arrived on the scene to get never-ending length of affluence and rising markets including property. Each one of these rising markets were, since they probably always will probably be formerly, an growing bubble that won’t sustained and would ultimately crash. In 2007-2010 the markets especially housing clearly did crash. He argues the immense private and public obligations aren’t sustainable there won’t be a means to repay it. This might require writing from trillions of dollars in financial trouble resulting in massive deflation, under production, greater unemployment together with what would probably be known as fiscal downturn.
Also, he argues you will notice a “false recover” this year-2012 resulting in another and greater crash of both housing and equity markets. He sees the Dow jones johnson manley Manley shedding inside the $13000 level to $3000 with the 2012-2014 period. Based on him that by 2011 we’re 4 years in a 12-15 year downward cycle driven by census with an enormous housing and credit bubble which must be deflated. Then he sees a really gradual recovery with the 2015-2018 period possibly taking longer. He doesn’t forecast a traditional booming economy until 2019-2024.
Is Mr. Dent Correct?
Dent has lots of detractors. Some reason his dependence on cycles and census is simply too simplistic while some reason why it’s over complex but misses other vital factors. Gene Epstein of Barrons, for instance, printed a critique online of Dent’s work as well as the dependence on census and consumption in September 2011.